VP Predictions

Just to get them on the record, here are my VP predictions:

Democratic: Tim Kaine
Republican: Tim Pawlenty

I know some journalists are reporting that McCain picked Romney and Obama picked Biden, but only a handful of people in each campaign actually know who the VP picks are, and none of those people would leak it to journalists. The journalists may end up being right, but if so, then only by chance.

Obama will go with Kaine because he's a white male, and a popular southern governor from an important swing state. Obama has a good personal relationship with Kaine, so trust isn't an issue. Perhaps most importantly, Kaine isn't a Washington insider (having never even worked in the federal government), which will hammer home Obama's "change" theme.

McCain will go with Pawlenty because they have a close personal relationship, and because Pawlenty is a young, fresh face who can balance out McCain's "Grandpa Simpson" image. Romney is seen as the "safe" choice by political journalists because of his economic credentials, but thrusting the Mormonism issue back into the national spotlight is the opposite of safe. Romney just has too much baggage. Oh yeah, and McCain reportedly hates Romney personally.